Forecasting Retail Banking Product Sales through Advanced Digital Technologies and Predictive Analytics
Annotatsiya
This article focuses on digital financial technologies and macroeconomic indicators to forecast the sales volume of retail banking products in Uzbekistan. To predict the sales of retail banking products through the influence of these digital and economic indicators, a forecasting model was developed using data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan and the Statistical Agency with a total number of observations of 91 monthly indicators for 2017-2024. The study used an econometric model based on the VAR (Vector Autoregressive) time series. The model also demonstrated that the growth of retail sales, as well as macroeconomic stability and economic growth, increases customer confidence and purchasing power. In addition, the impact of factors such as the number of bank plastic cards issued, the number of payment terminals, and the inflation rate on the volume of retail loans was projected to be 234,394. 22 billion soums in 2025 and 405,320.79 billion soums in 2029, respectively, based on the VAR model. As a result of the study, strategic recommendations were made for banks based on forecasting the sales of retail banking products. It was also noted that factors such as the stable growth trends in the volume of retail loans, the growth of bank plastic cards and payment terminals, the positive impact on the volume of retail loans, the importance of simplification, digitization and increasing financial transparency in financial processes, and the inflation rate ensuring the attractiveness and affordability of loans. This study enriches scientific and practical knowledge in the field of FinTech integration in banks and increases the efficiency of digital banking.