Role of BRICS in global food security: econometric panel modeling of Food Security Index, 2009–2024
Annotatsiya
Introduction Global food security faces increasing pressure from population growth, climate change, and geopolitical instability. However, the specific contribution of the BRICS nations to the resilience of global food markets remains insufficiently explored. This study evaluates the role of BRICS countries in ensuring global food security using the Food Security Index (FSI). It examines how agricultural, trade, infrastructural, demographic, and institutional factors influenced FSI dynamics from 2009 to 2024. Methods We constructed a panel dataset for the five BRICS countries using data from FAO, World Bank Open Data, UN Comtrade, the Logistics Performance Index, World Population Prospects, and the Worldwide Governance Indicators. The results show that agricultural exports, higher grain yields, improved logistics performance, and increased agricultural value added significantly and consistently enhance the FSI in BRICS countries. Results Conversely, rapid population growth and import dependence increase the vulnerability of food systems. Including an institutional quality (IQ) index further amplifies the positive effects of agricultural and trade factors on food security without changing the signs or significance of the key economic coefficients. The findings provide an evidence-based foundation for prioritizing agricultural, trade, infrastructural, and institutional policies within BRICS to enhance the FSI and reduce vulnerability to external shocks in global food supply chains. Discussion These results are relevant to national governments, international organizations, and policy experts designing food security strategies and strengthening intra-BRICS cooperation. Specifically, the data support the development of export and logistics infrastructure, the strengthening of institutional regulatory mechanisms, and the implementation of joint FSI monitoring initiatives.