Human resource development and Africa’s structural transformation: identifying the avoidable world uncertainty thresholds

Purpose This study aims to examine how human resource development impacts Africa’s structural transformation and the role of world uncertainty in influencing this relationship. Design/methodology/approach The study is based on a sample of forty-seven African countries over the period 2010–2022. The adopted empirical strategies are Fixed Effects Regression, Driscoll–Kraay Fixed Effects with Standard Errors, and the Generalized Method of Moments for robustness checks. The robust estimation approach was strategically designed to include valid model selection, control for variable omission bias and avoid instrument proliferation. Findings The following key findings are established. First, human resource development, measured through educational outcome and health quality, exerts a positive and significant unconditional effect on Africa’s structural transformation; (ii) world uncertainty negatively impacts the positive effect of human resource development on Africa’s structural transformation; (iii) the study identifies the world uncertainty thresholds that Africa must avoid to maintain the positive effect of human resource development on structural transformation. Furthermore, the robustness checks validate the findings, particularly when accounting for economic factors such as technological innovations, resource endowment and infrastructural development. The study concludes by outlining policy implications that contribute to advancing the objectives of the African Union’s Agenda 2063 and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Originality/value This study contributes to the literature on African structural transformation by ascertaining the world uncertainty thresholds to be avoided to maintain a positive relationship between human resource development and structural transformation.

Hali tarjima qilinmagan