Estimating Eco-Tourism Carrying Capacity Using GIS and Monitoring Data: Evidence from the Suqoq Area, Tashkent

In the process of achieving the sustainable development goals of eco-tourism sustainability by the year 2030, Uzbekistan needs to restructure its tourism planning framework to ensure that biodiversity-sensitive thresholds are scientifically determined and effectively enforced. Protected areas are spatial units established by the government in mountainous regions since the early 2000s to conserve biodiversity and regulate tourism activities on various ecological zones on fragile landscapes, including forest ecosystems and alpine meadows, as well as habitats such as endemic flora, migratory birds, small mammals, and freshwater species. This study aims at determining the contribution of GIS-based spatial analysis in improving estimation of eco-tourism carrying capacity thresholds in the Suqoq area. The purpose of this study is to identify the level of biodiversity-sensitive carrying capacity in the Suqoq tourism zone. Data were analyzed using quadratic regression and analytic hierarchy process of ecological sensitivity indicators and tourism pressure variables. Frequency distribution, simple percentage, mean, standard deviation and weighted scoring were used to analyze the monitoring data in this study. The results showed that the level of eco-tourism carrying capacity among visitor groups in Suqoq were at moderate level of sustainability compliance (mean score 3.42). The findings of the study also showed that habitat sensitivity index as a factor influencing allowable visitor numbers to a significant extent. It also highlights the role of GIS-based decision support in assisting the local authorities in implementing biodiversity protection measures and providing better guidelines for management of eco-tourism sites.

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