Economic Growth in the Next-11 Economies: The Roles of Structural, Institutional, and Human Capital Factors with Evidence on FDI Effects

This study investigates the determinants of economic growth in the Next-11 economies over the period 1996–2024, with particular emphasis on the roles of structural, institutional, and human capital factors. Using a comprehensive panel dataset for eleven emerging economies, the analysis employs three robust estimation techniques—Driscoll–Kraay Standard Errors (DKSEs), Feasible Generalized Least Squares (FGLSs), and Panel-Corrected Standard Errors (PCSEs)- to address common econometric issues such as heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, and cross-sectional dependence. The empirical results reveal that industrial output, energy consumption, human capital, institutional quality, and foreign direct investment significantly contribute to economic growth. Among these factors, industrial output and energy consumption exhibit particularly strong and consistent positive effects across all estimation methods, highlighting the importance of structural transformation and energy availability in supporting economic expansion. In contrast, trade openness shows a negative and statistically significant relationship with economic growth in most model specifications, suggesting that structural constraints, import dependence, and limited domestic productive capacity may restrict the growth benefits of external integration in these economies. The study also explores the conditional effects of foreign direct investment through interaction terms with human capital and institutional quality. The findings indicate that the growth-enhancing impact of foreign investment depends significantly on domestic absorptive capacity, particularly the availability of skilled labor and effective governance structures. These results emphasize the importance of complementary policies aimed at strengthening education systems, improving institutional quality, and enhancing regulatory effectiveness. From a policy perspective, the findings suggest that the Next-11 economies should prioritize industrial development, energy infrastructure expansion, human capital investment, and institutional reforms to maximize the benefits of globalization and foreign investment. Overall, the study contributes to the literature by providing robust empirical evidence on the interconnected roles of structural, institutional, and human capital factors in shaping economic growth in emerging economies.

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