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The rise of South–South trade and its effect on global CO2 emissions

Jing MengDepartment of Politics and International Studies, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 9DT, UKZhifu MiBartlett School of Construction and Project Management, University College London, London, WC1E 7HB, UKDabo GuanDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China. [email protected]Jiashuo LiState Key Laboratory of Coal Combustion, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, 430074, ChinaShu TaoLaboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, ChinaYuan LiInstitute of Resource, Environment and Sustainable Development, Jinan University, Guangzhou, 510632, ChinaKuishuang FengDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, USAJunfeng LiuLaboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China. [email protected]Zhu LiuDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaXuejun WangLaboratory for Earth Surface Processes, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, ChinaQiang ZhangDepartment of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaSteven J. DavisDepartment of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, 92697, USA. [email protected]

2018en

ABI

Annotatsiya

Abstract Economic globalization and concomitant growth in international trade since the late 1990s have profoundly reorganized global production activities and related CO 2 emissions. Here we show trade among developing nations (i.e., South–South trade) has more than doubled between 2004 and 2011, which reflects a new phase of globalization. Some production activities are relocating from China and India to other developing countries, particularly raw materials and intermediate goods production in energy-intensive sectors. In turn, the growth of CO 2 emissions embodied in Chinese exports has slowed or reversed, while the emissions embodied in exports from less-developed regions such as Vietnam and Bangladesh have surged. Although China’s emissions may be peaking, ever more complex supply chains are distributing energy-intensive industries and their CO 2 emissions throughout the global South. This trend may seriously undermine international efforts to reduce global emissions that increasingly rely on rallying voluntary contributions of more, smaller, and less-developed nations.

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04337-y

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