Dynamic Relationship of Urban and Rural Water Shortage Risks Based on the Economy–Society–Environment Perspective

Based on the economy–society–environment perspective, this study details the causes and characteristics of urban and rural water shortage risks, and then explores the dynamic relationship between urban and rural water shortage risks. It quantitatively analyzes the urban and rural water shortage risks of 52 areas in Northwest China during 2001–2019. Furthermore, the dynamic relationships are tested by using the exploratory spatial data analysis model. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The water shortage risk level is gradually declining over time, while the urban water shortage risk is improving faster than the rural water shortage risk. (2) The relationships show significant synergy. There are four primary types: strong synergy areas, medium synergy areas, weak synergy areas, and very weak synergy areas. (3) The levels of synergy within the northwestern regions show a positive spatial correlation and spatial agglomeration; that is, regions with high levels of synergy are adjacent, while regions with low levels of synergy are adjacent. From the perspective of local spatial differentiation, positive spatial autocorrelation patterns (H-H and L-L) account for a large proportion and gradually increase over the research period, reflecting the patterns of H-H and L-L. The agglomeration becomes increasingly obvious.

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