IDENTIFYING ELUSIVE ELECTROMAGNETIC COUNTERPARTS TO GRAVITATIONAL WAVE MERGERS: AN END-TO-END SIMULATION

Combined gravitational wave (GW) and electromagnetic (EM) observations of compact binary mergers should enable detailed studies of astrophysical processes in the strong-field gravity regime. This decade, ground-based GW interferometers promise to routinely detect compact binary mergers. Unfortunately, networks of GW interferometers have poor angular resolution on the sky and their EM signatures are predicted to be faint. Therefore, a challenging goal will be to unambiguously pinpoint the EM counterparts of GW mergers. We perform the first comprehensive end-to-end simulation that focuses on: (1) GW sky localization, distance measures, and volume errors with two compact binary populations and four different GW networks; (2) subsequent EM detectability by a slew of multiwavelength telescopes; and (3) final identification of the merger counterpart amidst a sea of possible astrophysical false positives. First, we find that double neutron star binary mergers can be detected out to a maximum distance of 400 Mpc (or 750 Mpc) by three (or five) detector GW networks, respectively. Neutron-star-black-hole binary mergers can be detected a factor of 1.5 further out; their median to maximum sky localizations are 50-170 deg^2 (or 6-65 deg^2) for a three (or five) detector GW network. Second, by optimizing depth, cadence, and sky area, we quantify relative fractions of optical counterparts that are detectable by a suite of different aperture-size telescopes across the globe. Third, we present five case studies to illustrate the diversity of scenarios in secure identification of the EM counterpart. We discuss the case of a typical binary, neither beamed nor nearby, and the challenges associated with identifying an EM counterpart at both low and high Galactic latitudes. For the first time, we demonstrate how construction of low-latency GW volumes in conjunction with local universe galaxy catalogs can help solve the problem of false positives. We conclude with strategies that would best prepare us for successfully identifying the elusive EM counterpart of a GW merger.
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