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Greater Sensitivity to Drought Accompanies Maize Yield Increase in the U.S. Midwest

David B. LobellDepartment of Environmental Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, USAMichael J. RobertsDepartment of Economics, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USAWolfram SchlenkerSchool of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USANoah BraunDepartment of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USABertis B. LittleDepartment of Mathematics, Office of the Provost, and Division of Academic Affairs, Tarleton State University, Stephenville, TX, USARoderick M. RejesusDepartment of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USAGraeme HammerThe University of Queensland, Queensland Alliance For Agriculture and Food Innovation, Brisbane, Qld 4072, Australia

2014en

ABI

Annotatsiya

A key question for climate change adaptation is whether existing cropping systems can become less sensitive to climate variations. We use a field-level data set on maize and soybean yields in the central United States for 1995 through 2012 to examine changes in drought sensitivity. Although yields have increased in absolute value under all levels of stress for both crops, the sensitivity of maize yields to drought stress associated with high vapor pressure deficits has increased. The greater sensitivity has occurred despite cultivar improvements and increased carbon dioxide and reflects the agronomic trend toward higher sowing densities. The results suggest that agronomic changes tend to translate improved drought tolerance of plants to higher average yields but not to decreasing drought sensitivity of yields at the field scale.

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Identifikatorlar

DOI: 10.1126/science.1251423

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