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Market Size in Innovation: Theory and Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry

Daron AcemoğluMassachusetts Institute of TechnologyJoshua LinnMassachusetts Institute of Technology
2004en
ABI

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This paper investigates the effect of (potential) market size on entry of new drugs and pharmaceutical innovation. Focusing on exogenous changes driven by U. S. demographic trends, we find a large effect of potential market size on the entry of nongeneric drugs and new molecular entities. These effects are generally robust to controlling for a variety of supply-side factors and changes in the technology of pharmaceutical research. I.

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