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Global Carbon Budget 2022

Pierre FriedlingsteinFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UKMichael O’SullivanFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UKMatthew W. JonesTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UKRobbie M. AndrewCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, NorwayLuke GregorEnvironmental Physics Group, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics and Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zrich, Zurich, SwitzerlandJudith HauckAlfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum fr Polar-und Meeresforschung, Postfach 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, GermanyCorinne Le QuéréTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UKIngrid T. LuijkxEnvironmental Sciences Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700AA, Wageningen, the NetherlandsAre OlsenBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayGlen P. PetersCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, NorwayWouter PetersCentre for Isotope Research, University of Groningen, Groningen, the NetherlandsJulia PongratzDepartment fr Geographie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitt Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Mnchen, GermanyClemens SchwingshacklDepartment fr Geographie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitt Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Mnchen, GermanyStephen SitchFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UKJosep G. CanadellCSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2101, AustraliaPhilippe CiaisUniversit Paris-Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceRobert B. JacksonDepartment of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, and Precourt Institute for Energy,Simone R. AlinNational Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USARamdane AlkamaJoint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), ItalyAlmut ArnethKarlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research/Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyVivek AroraCanadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, CanadaNicholas R. BatesBermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences (BIOS), 17 Biological Lane, St. Georges, GE01, BermudaMeike BeckerBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayNicolas BellouinDepartment of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, RG6 6BB, UKHenry C. BittigLeibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research Warnemuende (IOW), Seestrasse 15, 18119 Rostock, GermanyLaurent BoppLaboratoire de Mtorologie Dynamique/Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, Ecole Normale Suprieure/Universit PSL, Sorbonne Universit, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris, 75231, FranceFrédéric ChevallierLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ,Louise ChiniDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USAMargot CroninMarine Institute, Galway, IrelandWiley EvansHakai Institute, Heriot Bay, BC, CanadaStefanie FalkDepartment fr Geographie, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitt Munich, Luisenstr. 37, 80333 Mnchen, GermanyRichard A. FeelyNational Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USAThomas GasserInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, AustriaMarion GehlenLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ,Thanos GkritzalisFlanders Marine Institute (VLIZ), InnovOceanSite, Jacobsenstraat 1, 8400, Ostend, BelgiumLucas GloegeLamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USAGiacomo GrassiJoint Research Centre, European Commission, 21027 Ispra (VA), ItalyNicolas GruberEnvironmental Physics Group, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics and Center for Climate Systems Modeling (C2SM), ETH Zrich, Zurich, SwitzerlandÖzgür GürsesAlfred-Wegener-Institut Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Postfach 120161, 27515 Bremerhaven, GermanyIan HarrisNCAS-Climate, Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UKMatthew HefnerDepartment of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC 28608, USAR. A. HoughtonWoodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540, USAG. C. HurttDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USAYosuke IidaAtmosphere and Ocean Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, Minato-Ku, Tokyo 105-8431, JapanTatiana IlyinaMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyAtul K. JainDepartment of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61821, USAAnnika JersildMax Planck Institute for Meteorology, 20146 Hamburg, GermanyKoji KadonoAtmosphere and Ocean Department, Japan Meteorological Agency, Minato-Ku, Tokyo 105-8431, JapanEtsushi KatoInstitute of Applied Energy (IAE), Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-0003, JapanDaniel KennedyNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics, Terrestrial Sciences Section, Boulder, CO 80305, USAKees Klein GoldewijkDepartment IMEW, Faculty of Geosciences, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC, Utrecht, the NetherlandsJürgen KnauerClimate Science Centre, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT 2601, AustraliaJan Ivar KorsbakkenCICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo 0349, NorwayPeter LandschützerFlanders Marine Institute (VLIZ), InnovOceanSite, Jacobsenstraat 1, 8400, Ostend, BelgiumNathalie LefèvreLOCEAN/IPSL laboratory, Sorbonne Université, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, 75252, FranceKeith LindsayNational Center for Atmospheric Research, Climate and Global Dynamics,Junjie LiuJet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125, USAZhu LiuDepartment of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, ChinaGregg MarlandDepartment of Geological and Environmental Sciences, Appalachian State University, Boone, NC 28608, USANicolas MayotTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UKMatthew J. McGrathLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ,Nicolas MetzlLOCEAN/IPSL laboratory, Sorbonne Universit, CNRS/IRD/MNHN, Paris, 75252, FranceNatalie MonacciUniversity of Alaska Fairbanks, College of Fisheries and Ocean Sciences, P.O. Box 757220, Fairbanks, AK 99775-7220, USADavid R. MunroCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80305, USA 48 National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Global Monitoring Laboratory (NOAA/GML), Boulder, CO 80305, USA 49 Earth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan 50 Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan 51 Cooperative Institute for Climate, Ocean and Ecosystem Studies (CICOES), University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA 52 Japan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama 236-8648, Japan 53 National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, UK 54 School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, UKShin‐Ichiro NakaokaEarth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, JapanYosuke NiwaHawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith, NSW 2751, AustraliaKevin O’BrienNational Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USATsuneo OnoJapan Fisheries Research and Education Agency, 2-12-4 Fukuura, Kanazawa-Ku, Yokohama 236-8648, JapanPaul I. PalmerNational Centre for Earth Observation, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3FE, UKNaiqing PanCollege of Forestry, Wildlife and Environment, Auburn University, Auburn, AL 36849, USADenis PierrotNational Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USAKatie PocockHakai Institute, Heriot Bay, BC, CanadaBenjamin PoulterNASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USALaure ResplandyPrinceton University, Department of Geosciences and Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton, NJ 08544, USAEddy RobertsonMet Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UKChristian RödenbeckMax Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, P.O. Box 600164, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, GermanyCarmen Dolores Arbelo RodríguezUniversity of Miami, RSMAS, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149, USAThais M. RosanFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UKJörg SchwingerBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayRoland SéférianCNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, 31057, FranceJamie D. ShutlerFaculty of Environment, Science and Economy, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4QF, UKIngunn SkjelvanBjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, NorwayTobias SteinhoffGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Dsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, GermanyQing SunClimate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, SwitzerlandAdrienne J. SuttonNational Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (NOAA/PMEL), 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, USAColm SweeneyNational Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Global Monitoring Laboratory (NOAA/GML), Boulder, CO 80305, USAShintaro TakaoEarth System Division, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, JapanToste TanhuaGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Dsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, GermanyPieter P. TansInstitute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USAXiangjun TianState Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System, Environment and Resources (TPESER), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, ChinaHanqin TianSchiller Institute for Integrated Science and Society, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Boston College, Chestnut Hill, MA 02467, USABronte TilbrookAustralian Antarctic Partnership Program, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7001, AustraliaHiroyuki TsujinoMeteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, JapanFrancesco N. TubielloStatistics Division, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Via Terme di Caracalla, Rome 00153, ItalyGuido R. van der WerfDepartment of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit, 1081 Amsterdam, the NetherlandsAnthony P. WalkerEnvironmental Sciences Division and Climate Change Science Institute, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USARik WanninkhofNational Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration/Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory (NOAA/AOML), Miami, FL 33149, USAChris WhiteheadSitka Tribe of Alaska, 456 Katlian Street, Sitka, AK 99835, USAAnna Willstrand WranneSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Sven Kllfeltsgata 15, 426 68 Vstra Frlunda, SwedenRebecca WrightTyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK

2022en

ABI

Annotatsiya

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions andtheir redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biospherein a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carboncycle, support the development of climate policies, and project futureclimate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodologies toquantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and theiruncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energystatistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change(ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land-use changedata and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measureddirectly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annualchanges in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimatedwith global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-baseddata products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated withdynamic global vegetation models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance(BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and theestimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is ameasure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carboncycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative to 2020, withfossil emissions at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is included), and ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission(including the cement carbonation sink) of 10.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1(40.0 ± 2.9 GtCO2). Also, for 2021, GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.5 ± 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1, with aBIM of −0.6 GtC yr−1 (i.e. the total estimated sources were too low orsinks were too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over2021 reached 414.71 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2022 suggest anincrease in EFOS relative to 2021 of +1.0 % (0.1 % to 1.9 %)globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 417.2 ppm, morethan 50 % above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, the meanand trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistentlyestimated over the period 1959–2021, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadalvariability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multipleapproaches and observations shows (1) a persistent large uncertainty in theestimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between thedifferent methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northernextratropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on thestrength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living data updatedocuments changes in the methods and data sets used in this new globalcarbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cyclecompared with previous publications of this data set. The data presented inthis work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

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DOI: 10.5194/essd-14-4811-2022

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