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An assessment of the global impact of 21st century land use change on soil erosion

Pasquale BorrelliEnvironmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, CH-4056, Switzerland. [email protected]David A. RobinsonNERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Bangor, LL57 2UW, United KingdomLarissa R. FleischerEmanuele LugatoEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Sustainable Resources, Ispra, I-21027, ItalyCristiano BallabioEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Sustainable Resources, Ispra, I-21027, ItalyChristine AlewellEnvironmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, CH-4056, SwitzerlandKatrin MeusburgerEnvironmental Geosciences, University of Basel, Basel, CH-4056, SwitzerlandSirio ModugnoWorld Food Programme, Roma, 00148, ItalyBrigitta SchüttDepartment of Earth Sciences, Physical Geography, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, 12249, GermanyVito FerroDepartment of Earth and Marine Science, University of Palermo, Palermo, 90123, ItalyVincenzo BagarelloDepartment of Agricultural, Food and Forest Sciences, University of Palermo, Palermo, 90128, ItalyKristof Van OostTECLIM-Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, BE, 1348, BelgiumLuca MontanarellaEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Sustainable Resources, Ispra, I-21027, ItalyPanos PanagosEuropean Commission, Joint Research Centre, Directorate for Sustainable Resources, Ispra, I-21027, Italy

2017en

ABI

Annotatsiya

Abstract Human activity and related land use change are the primary cause of accelerated soil erosion, which has substantial implications for nutrient and carbon cycling, land productivity and in turn, worldwide socio-economic conditions. Here we present an unprecedentedly high resolution (250 × 250 m) global potential soil erosion model, using a combination of remote sensing, GIS modelling and census data. We challenge the previous annual soil erosion reference values as our estimate, of 35.9 Pg yr −1 of soil eroded in 2012, is at least two times lower. Moreover, we estimate the spatial and temporal effects of land use change between 2001 and 2012 and the potential offset of the global application of conservation practices. Our findings indicate a potential overall increase in global soil erosion driven by cropland expansion. The greatest increases are predicted to occur in Sub-Saharan Africa, South America and Southeast Asia. The least developed economies have been found to experience the highest estimates of soil erosion rates.

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02142-7

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