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Epidemiology of osteoporotic fracture in Moldova and development of a country-specific FRAX model

Alla ZakroyevaUral State Medical University, 3 Repina street, Yekaterinburg, Russia, 620028O. M. LesnyakNorth West State Medical University named after I.I. Mechnikov, 41, Kirochnaya street, St. Petersburg, Russia, 191015Victor CazacState University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 165 Stefan cel Mare si Sfant blvd., 2004, Chisinau, Republic of MoldovaLiliana GroppaState University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 165 Stefan cel Mare si Sfant blvd., 2004, Chisinau, Republic of MoldovaEugen RussuState University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 165 Stefan cel Mare si Sfant blvd., 2004, Chisinau, Republic of MoldovaLia ChișlariState University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 165 Stefan cel Mare si Sfant blvd., 2004, Chisinau, Republic of MoldovaLarisa RotaruState University of Medicine and Pharmacy, 165 Stefan cel Mare si Sfant blvd., 2004, Chisinau, Republic of MoldovaHelena JohanssonMary McKillop Health Institute, Catholic University of Australia, Melbourne, AustraliaNicholas C. HarveyMRC Lifecourse Epidemiology Unit, University of Southampton, Southampton, UKEugène McCloskeyCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UKMattias LorentzonGeriatric Medicine, Department of Internal Medicine and Clinical Nutrition, Institute of Medicine, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, SwedenJohn А. KanisCentre for Metabolic Bone Diseases, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK. [email protected]

2020en

ABI

Annotatsiya

Retrospective population-based survey in 2 regions of the Republic of Moldova determined the incidence of fractures at the hip, proximal humerus and distal forearm. The estimated number of such fractures nationwide for 2015 was 11,271 and is predicted to increase to 15,863 in 2050. The hip fracture rates were used to create a FRAX model to help guide decisions about treatment. OBJECTIVE: This paper describes the epidemiology of osteoporotic fractures in Republic of Moldova that was used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX® tool. METHODS: We carried out a retrospective population-based survey in 2 regions of the Republic of Moldova (Anenii Noi district and Orhei district) representing approximately 6% of the country's population. We identified hip, forearm and humerus fractures in 2011 and 2012 from hospital registers and primary care sources. Age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fracture and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Moldova. Fracture probabilities were compared with those from neighbouring countries having FRAX models. RESULTS: The incidence of hip fracture applied nationally suggested that the estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 3911 and is predicted to increase by 60% to 6492 in 2050. Hip fracture incidence was a good predictor of forearm and humeral fractures. FRAX-based probabilities were higher in Moldova than neighbouring countries (Ukraine and Romania). CONCLUSION: The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Moldavan population and help guide decisions about treatment.

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DOI: 10.1007/s11657-019-0669-z

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