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The momentum of the solar energy transition

Femke J. M. M. NijsseGlobal Systems Institute, Department of Geography, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK. [email protected]Jean-François MercureCambridge Centre for Energy, Environment and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKNadia AmeliInstitute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UKFrancesca LarosaInstitute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UKSumit KothariInstitute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UKJamie RickmanInstitute for Sustainable Resources, University College London, London, UKPim VercoulenCambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UKHector PollittCambridge Centre for Energy, Environment and Natural Resource Governance, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK

2023en

ABI

Annotatsiya

Decarbonisation plans across the globe require zero-carbon energy sources to be widely deployed by 2050 or 2060. Solar energy is the most widely available energy resource on Earth, and its economic attractiveness is improving fast in a cycle of increasing investments. Here we use data-driven conditional technology and economic forecasting modelling to establish which zero carbon power sources could become dominant worldwide. We find that, due to technological trajectories set in motion by past policy, a global irreversible solar tipping point may have passed where solar energy gradually comes to dominate global electricity markets, without any further climate policies. Uncertainties arise, however, over grid stability in a renewables-dominated power system, the availability of sufficient finance in underdeveloped economies, the capacity of supply chains and political resistance from regions that lose employment. Policies resolving these barriers may be more effective than price instruments to accelerate the transition to clean energy.

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Identifikatorlar

DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-41971-7

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