International Trade in the Era of Neo-Globalization: Disintegration vs Digital Partnership

The paper aims to study the main trends in the development of international trade in the era of neo-globalization and make forecasting scenarios that reflect the prospects and strategies for building international economic (foreign trade) relations. The author uses trend analysis, regression analysis, and the Monte Carlo method. The author proves that the digital economy determines the prospects for international trade in the era of neo-globalization. The author indicates several trends of international trade in the era of neo-globalization, such as the increase in the freedom of international trade (by 2.16%), the increasing level of globalization of the economy (by 4.11%), and the intensive increase in high-tech exports (by 74.94%). The most possible (28%) scenario for developing international trade is related to the digital partnership. In this scenario, a 25.11% increase in digital competitiveness provides an 8.29% increase in the globalization index and a 21.78% increase in high-tech exports. These indicators are achieved despite the growth of customs barriers by 58.86%. That is, a feature of the era of neo-globalization is the predominance of technological barriers over custom ones to the development of international trade.

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