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Disentangling the numbers behind agriculture-driven tropical deforestation

Florence PendrillDepartment of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, SwedenToby GardnerStockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, SwedenPatrick MeyfroidtFonds de la Recherche Scientifique F.R.S.-FNRS, Brussels, BelgiumU. Martin PerssonDepartment of Space, Earth and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Gothenburg, SwedenJustin AdamsTropical Forest Alliance, World Economic Forum, Geneva, SwitzerlandTasso AzevedoObservatório do Clima, MapBiomas, São Paulo, BrazilMairon G. Bastos LimaStockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, SwedenMatthias BaumannGeography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, GermanyPhilip G. CurtisJuniata Analytics LLC, Denver, CO, USAVeronique De SyLaboratory of Geo-Information Science and Remote Sensing, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, NetherlandsRachael GarrettDepartment of Geography and Cambridge Conservation Initiative, Cambridge University, Cambridge, UKJavier GodarStockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, SwedenElizabeth Dow GoldmanGlobal Forest Watch, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USAMatthew C. HansenDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USARobert HeilmayrBren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, USAMartin HeroldHelmholz GFZ Research Centre for Geosciences, Section 1.4 Remote Sensing and Geoinformatics, Telegrafenberg, Potsdam, GermanyTobias KuemmerleGeography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, GermanyMichael J. LathuillièreStockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, SwedenVivian RibeiroStockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Stockholm, SwedenAlexandra TyukavinaDepartment of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USAMikaela WeisseGlobal Forest Watch, World Resources Institute, Washington, DC, USAChris WestStockholm Environment Institute York, Department of Environment and Geography, University of York, York, UK

2022en

ABI

Annotatsiya

Tropical deforestation continues at alarming rates with profound impacts on ecosystems, climate, and livelihoods, prompting renewed commitments to halt its continuation. Although it is well established that agriculture is a dominant driver of deforestation, rates and mechanisms remain disputed and often lack a clear evidence base. We synthesize the best available pantropical evidence to provide clarity on how agriculture drives deforestation. Although most (90 to 99%) deforestation across the tropics 2011 to 2015 was driven by agriculture, only 45 to 65% of deforested land became productive agriculture within a few years. Therefore, ending deforestation likely requires combining measures to create deforestation-free supply chains with landscape governance interventions. We highlight key remaining evidence gaps including deforestation trends, commodity-specific land-use dynamics, and data from tropical dry forests and forests across Africa.

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DOI: 10.1126/science.abm9267

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