Forecasting Market Size and Market Growth Rates for New Products

How many times is a forecast of a technological development correct? According to many experienced managers, it almost never is. Then what good is a forecast? A forecast helps make important innovation decisions, according to Brian C. Twiss. He argues that precision in forecasting a technological development is seldom needed for purposes of long‐term planning and that any innovation so marginal that small errors in forecasting will make a big difference should not be considered anyway. Twiss suggests that technology forecasting can be of real value once it is accepted that it is essentially concerned with modeling human behavior. This is the unexpected viewpoint that Twiss presents in this article. He explains how to develop and how to use a technology forecast in long‐range planning.

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