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A time delay dynamical model for outbreak of 2019-nCoV and the parameter identification

Yu ChenSchool of Mathematics, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Financial Information Technology , Shanghai University of Finance and Economics , Shanghai 200433 , P. R. ChinaJin ChengSchool of Mathematical Sciences and SKLCAM , Fudan University , Shanghai , 200433 , P. R. ChinaYu JiangSchool of Mathematics, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Financial Information Technology , Shanghai University of Finance and Economics , Shanghai 200433 , P. R. ChinaKeji LiuSchool of Mathematics, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Financial Information Technology , Shanghai University of Finance and Economics , Shanghai 200433 , P. R. China

2020en

ABI

Annotatsiya

Abstract In this paper, we propose a novel dynamical system with time delay to describe the outbreak of 2019-nCoV in China. One typical feature of this epidemic is that it can spread in the latent period, which can therefore be described by time delay process in the differential equations. The accumulated numbers of classified populations are employed as variables, which is consistent with the official data and facilitates the parameter identification. The numerical methods for the prediction of the outbreak of 2019-nCoV and parameter identification are provided, and the numerical results show that the novel dynamic system can well predict the outbreak trend so far. Based on the numerical simulations, we suggest that the transmission of individuals should be greatly controlled with high isolation rate by the government.

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Identifikatorlar

DOI: 10.1515/jiip-2020-0010

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