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A unified approach to the distribution of total size and total area under the trajectory of infectives in epidemic models

Frank BallUniversity of Nottingham
1986en
ABI

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We provide a unified probabilistic approach to the distribution of total size and total area under the trajectory of infectives for a general stochastic epidemic with any specified distribution of the infectious period. The key tool is a Wald&s identity for the epidemic process. The generalisation of our results to epidemics spreading amongst a heterogeneous population is straightforward.

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