Maqola

Toward a consistent modeling framework to assess multi-sectoral climate impacts

Erwan MonierJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA. [email protected]Sergey PaltsevJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USA. [email protected]Andrei SokolovJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USAY.-H. Henry ChenJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USAXiang GaoJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USAQudsia EjazJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USAEvan CouzoJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USAC. Adam SchlosserJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USAStephanie DutkiewiczJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USACharles FantJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USAJeffery R. ScottJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USADavid W. KicklighterThe Ecosystems Center, Marine Biological Laboratory, 7 MBL St, Woods Hole, MA, 02543, USAJennifer MorrisJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USAHenry D. JacobyJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USARonald G. PrinnJoint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA, 02139, USAMartin HaighShell International, Shell Centre, York Road, London, SE1 7NA, UK

2018en

ABI

Annotatsiya

Efforts to estimate the physical and economic impacts of future climate change face substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches to impact analysis-which involve evaluation of a damage function or multi-model comparisons based on a limited number of standardized scenarios-we propose integrating a geospatially resolved physical representation of impacts into a coupled human-Earth system modeling framework. Large internationally coordinated exercises cannot easily respond to new policy targets and the implementation of standard scenarios across models, institutions and research communities can yield inconsistent estimates. Here, we argue for a shift toward the use of a self-consistent integrated modeling framework to assess climate impacts, and discuss ways the integrated assessment modeling community can move in this direction. We then demonstrate the capabilities of such a modeling framework by conducting a multi-sectoral assessment of climate impacts under a range of consistent and integrated economic and climate scenarios that are responsive to new policies and business expectations.

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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02984-9

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