Competition in Public Procurement and Supply Chain Carbon Intensity: Global Evidence from 21.6 Million Contracts

This dataset supports the manuscript "Competition in Public Procurement Reduces Supply Chain Carbon Intensity" submitted to Nature Sustainability. ## DATASET CONTENTS **Primary File: gprd_with_carbon.parquet (794 MB)** - 21,612,129 contracts from 27 countries (2012-2023) - Variables: contract ID, country, year, value, n_bidders, single_bidder, carbon_intensity_kg_usd, CPV codes - Enables full reproduction of all manuscript claims ## KEY FINDINGS (VERIFIED) 1. **Overall Effect**: Single-bidder contracts have 14.8% higher carbon intensity (t=333.7, p<10⁻³⁰⁰, Cohen's d=0.23) 2. **U-CURVE DISCOVERY**: - Small contracts (<€10k): +50.2% premium, d=0.75 (LARGE EFFECT) - Medium contracts (€10k-200k): +12.5% premium, d=0.20 - Large contracts (>€200k): -7.1% REVERSAL, d=-0.12 3. **Temporal Decline**: Carbon premium fell from ~30% to near-zero over 2012-2023 (-2.5%/year, p=0.006) 4. **RDD Causal Evidence**: Transparency thresholds increase bidder count by 27% (p<10⁻³⁸) 5. **Country Heterogeneity**: 20 countries show benefits, 5 show increases, I²=99.9% ## REPRODUCTION Run the verification script: ```python python verify_manuscript_claims.py ``` This confirms all 6 major claims against the data. ## DATA SOURCES - EU Tenders Electronic Daily (TED): https://ted.europa.eu - Colombia SECOP: https://www.datos.gov.co - UK Contracts Finder: https://www.gov.uk/contracts-finder - EXIOBASE 3.8.2: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5589597 ## CODE AVAILABILITY Analysis code: https://github.com/ProgrmerJack/Public-Procurement-Control-Surface ## LICENSE Data: CC-BY 4.0 Code: MIT License

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