Fukui Experimental Protocol v1.0: Pre-Registered Failure Points for Regional V=N/D Implementation
Abstract
This paper presents the pre-registered experimental protocol for a regional-scale implementation of V=N/D theory (Value = Service Density / Friction) in Fukui Prefecture, Japan. Fukui is framed explicitly as an external validity test — a site for discovering where and how the theory breaks in real-world social conditions. Twelve pre-registered failure points (⑧–⑲) are documented, organized into five causal layers: evaluation distortion, behavioral distortion, data absence, temporal/structural distortion, and scale failure. Analysis converges on a single structural finding: the core constraint is not the theory itself, but the observation mechanism — specifically, 'evaluation as a social act cannot be separated from social relationship.' Three paths forward are identified: engineering the measurement, revising the theory, or redefining the experimental objective (measuring the degree of distortion). The paper argues that the third path is both scientifically honest and practically achievable. Submitted as a pre-registration record to establish predicted failure points before any data is collected. Pre-registration date: April 19, 2026.