Contemporary climate change problems in Central Asia
Abstract
According to the moderate climate change scenario, the direct impact of climate change on irrigated crops, including cotton, wheat, apples, tomatoes, and potatoes, is pro-jected to decrease the yields by 1–13% by 2050. However, the demand for food is expected to increase overall due to the population growth and poverty reduction goals. The rate of climate change in the countries varies. The highest decadal rates of climate change were recorded in Uzbekistan at 0.29°C (1950-2005) and in Kazakhstan at 0.26°C (1936-2005). The climate change rate in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan were 0.08°C and 0.10°C, respectively. In these upstream countries, the area of forests and mountain ranges is relatively large, and the possible negative impact of climatic factors is relatively small. Thus, the contemporary problems in Central Asia in the context of climate change are related to a growing scarcity of water resources; uneven distribution of water resources across the countries in relation to the needs; relatively low water use efficiency (especially in agriculture); relatively high population growth rates and intensification of economic processes. If additional resource-saving measures are not taken, the negative consequences of climate change in the region may include an increased risk of water shortages, droughts, and other dangerous hydrome-teorological events that lead to instability of agricultural production and threaten food secu-rity; and particularly the shrinkage of glaciers and therewith one of the key sources of freshwater. Overall, a strategy of action plans on climate change nationally and region-wide is urgently needed, including both adaptation and mitigation measures.