Tendo Economics v3.1: Three-Variable Physical Model — Economic Waste Heat, Solar Radiation, and Cosmic Energy as Composite Timing Index
Аннотация
Extended version of Tendo Economics v3.0 (DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.20263290), adding Appendix D: Three-Variable Physical Model. New findings: E_total composite (Signalness 40% + TempNorm 30% + Solar 30%) vs 72h gold return: r = -0.076 (not significant — null result reported honestly) Temperature anomaly vs gold return: r = -0.132, consistent with Recession-Gold-Temperature hypothesis Golden Condition (KOKU ≥100 days + Sig ≥0.6): N=4, win rate 75.0% [CI: 19.8%-95.7%] — exploratory only AI infrastructure anomaly: data center expansion decouples waste heat from conventional economic cycles post-2023 May 18, 2026 E_total (0.821) exceeds all 60 historical observations — structurally unprecedented Recession-Gold-Temperature mechanism: economic contraction reduces waste heat AND drives gold demand via common cause (risk-off) Raw data (60 GOLD events, temperature, gold prices) included as JSON. Pre-registered CSS Event prediction (May 25-30, 2026) remains active. All findings exploratory. No causal claims. Not investment advice.