Статья

Forecasting the Volume of Tourism Services in Uzbekistan

Bahodirhon SafarovDepartment of Digital Economy, Faculty of Human Resources Management, Samarkand State University, Samarkand 140105, UzbekistanHisham Mohammad AL-SMADIDepartment of Financial and Administrative Sciences, Ajloun College, AL-Balqa Applied University, Ajloun 26816, JordanMakhina BuzrukovaDepartment of Digital Economy, Faculty of Human Resources Management, Samarkand State University, Samarkand 140105, UzbekistanBekzot JanzakovDepartment of Food and Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Economics, Samarkand Branch of Tashkent State University of Economics, Samarkand 140103, UzbekistanAlexandru IlieșDepartment of Geography, Tourism and Territorial Planning, Faculty of Geography, Tourism and Sport, University of Oradea, 1 Universitatii Street, 410087 Oradea, RomaniaVasile GramaDepartment of Geography, Tourism and Territorial Planning, Faculty of Geography, Tourism and Sport, University of Oradea, 1 Universitatii Street, 410087 Oradea, RomaniaDorina Camelia IlieșDepartment of Geography, Tourism and Territorial Planning, Faculty of Geography, Tourism and Sport, University of Oradea, 1 Universitatii Street, 410087 Oradea, RomaniaKatalin Csobán VargánéDepartment of Tourism and Hospitality Management, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Debrecen, H-4032 Debrecen, HungaryLóránt Dénes DávidInstitute of Rural Development and Sustainable Economy, The Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences (MATE), H-2100 Godollo, Hungary

Sustainabilityjournal2022en

ABI

Аннотация

The aim of the present research is to assess the impact of factors such as welfare, infrastructure, security, and the environment on inbound tourism as well as to develop its forecast. Six proxy indicators of the above-mentioned factors were selected as variables, namely, welfare (real GDP per capita, life expectancy, consumer price index), infrastructure (passenger transportation volume), security (total recorded crimes), and the environment (CO2 emissions). We used a time series-univariate ARIMA model to forecast the inbound tourism in the Republic of Uzbekistan, and applied the ARDL model to assess the impact of lagged real GDP per capita on inbound tourism in both the short and long terms. The results of our research show that security and welfare significantly affect the inflow of foreign tourists in the country, along with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis, the effects of which are expected to persist beyond 2026.

Темы

Diverse Aspects of Tourism Research Cruise Tourism Development and Management Sport and Mega-Event Impacts

Идентификаторы

DOI: 10.3390/su14137762

Цитирования и источники

Цитирований: 10 Использованных источников: 35

Показатели — AkademScholar · Скоро