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Asymptotic methods for problems in the mathematical theory of epidemics

A. V. NagaevInstitute of Mathematics of the Uzbek S. S. R. Academy of Sciences, Tashkent
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Let n and m be the initial numbers of susceptibles and infectives respectively in the well-known model of Bailey. The successive states of a population will be described by ( i,j ), where i is the number infected since the beginning of the epidemic, and j is the number removed (dead, isolated or recovered and immune) during the same period. The transition probabilities obviously are the following

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