Forecasting changes of arid geosystems under ecological destabilizing conditions in the Aral Sea region
V.A. RifikovInstitute of Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, UzbekistanN.A. RifikovaInstitute of Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, UzbekistanG.F. MamadganovaInstitute of Seismology, Academy of Sciences of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan
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We discuss the main natural and anthropogenic factors of forecasting and establish the basic tendencies to change natural complexes. We conclude that the Aral Sea and the Aral Sea region are genetically uniform and paragenetically dynamical macro geosystems. By considering properties and features of structural and dynamic conditions of superaqual, subequal, and eluvial geosystems of the Aral Sea region and the Aral Sea, a forecast of its transformation by 2020 year is developed. We develop a practical plan of action for cardinal improvement of the environment in the Amu Darya Delta and the dried bottom of the Aral Sea.
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