"How to preserve narrow endemics in view of climate change? The Nuratau Mountains as the case"
Annotatsiya
Endemic species usually have higher risk of extinction than widespread species and therefore for endemics negative effects of climate change can be especially dramatic.The Nuratau Mountains, located in Uzbekistan, are rich in endemic species and are a part of the Mountains of Central Asia Global Biodiversity Hotspot and one of Key Biodiversity Areas.To understand the consequences of climate change for a group of endemic plant species found in this region, we conducted species distribution modelling (SDM) and produced species maps of habitat suitability, as well as maps of predicted endemic species richness under current and expected future climatic conditions.Based the obtained information, we assessed: i) how well the existing protected area in the region (Nuratau Nature Reserve) protects the local endemics and ii) what needs to be done to preserve these species in the face of expected future warming.Among the 27 species studied, 14 appear to be the true narrow endemics as their predicted range is largely or entirely limited to the Nuratau Mountains.The remaining species have a wide predicted range, of which the Nuratau Mountains are only a small part.Only seven species will have suitable habitat within the Nuratau Mountains and only five of them will have suitable habitat in the protected territory of the Nuratau Nature Reserve.For six species, there will be no suitable area throughout the study area.Surprisingly, 13 species will have a suitable habitat in the Kugitang Range, where the Surkhan Nature Reserve is located.We propose as the most appropriate climate change adaptation strategy for these Nuratau endemics to artificially increase their dispersal capacity via in situ introduction trials and the creation of new populations in the Surkhan Nature Reserve.