The impact of water resources management and resource optimisation during drought periods
Annotatsiya
Water scarcity affects approximately 40% of the global population, with drought events causing annual economic losses exceeding $5–8 bln. Traditional water management approaches are increasingly inadequate as climate variability intensifies. The current study aims to develop an integrated framework for water resource optimisation during drought periods that bridges theoretical models with practical implementation considerations. The research was conducted across three watersheds (Limpopo, Murray–Darling, and Colorado River basins) using comprehensive hydroclimatic, socioeconomic, and institutional data spanning 1992–2022. A system dynamics model with five interconnected subsystems was coupled with a Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm-III optimisation framework. The Institutional Analysis and Development framework assessed governance structures, while Sobol sensitivity analysis evaluated parameter influence. Optimised balanced strategies reduced economic losses by 19.4–24.8%, decreased social impacts by 25.8–28.7%, and increased environmental flow compliance to 49.2–61.7% compared to baseline management. The Murray–Darling basin demonstrated the highest implementation potential due to its comprehensive legal framework and established adaptive mechanisms. Under severe climate change scenarios, optimisation performance advantages declined by 21–29%. Effective drought management requires both technical optimisation and institutional adaptation. Basin-specific implementation pathways provide practical roadmaps for enhancing water security while balancing diverse stakeholder needs in increasingly water-stressed regions.