Evaluating the potential of nighttime satellite imagery to analyze urban dynamics: a case study of the Tashkent Region, Uzbekistan
Annotatsiya
Assessing urban dynamics is a critical prerequisite for fostering sustainable regional development, particularly in rapidly urbanizing areas experiencing intense demographic and economic transformation. This study investigates the potential of nighttime satellite imagery—specifically data from the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) and its Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS)—to serve as a proxy for tracking spatial and temporal patterns of urban growth in the Tashkent Region of Uzbekistan, a key economic hub in Central Asia undergoing significant structural change. Drawing on a comprehensive dataset comprising 11 664 radiance observations across 81 urban settlements between 2012 and 2023, we analyze metrics of radiance growth, intensity distribution, temporal frequency, and variability to characterize urban trajectories. Our findings reveal robust correlations between nighttime light radiance and both economic activity and urban expansion, enabling the classification of settlements into three distinct categories of urban dynamism: low, moderate, and high. Notably, in some cases—such as Bekabad—radiance aligns more closely with industrial output than with population size, underscoring the method’s sensitivity to economic structure. The approach demonstrates high scalability, cost-efficiency, and reliability, especially in contexts where official socio-economic statistics are sparse, inconsistent, or delayed. By validating radiance as a robust indicator of urban vitality, this research establishes a foundation for integrating remote sensing data with conventional planning tools to support evidence-based decision-making in regional policy, infrastructure investment, and sustainable urban management. The developed methodological framework is readily transferable to other regions facing similar data limitations, offering a replicable model for monitoring urban change in the Global South.